Want to know how to slash state spending without severe economic or political fall out? How to sort out an asylum policy? How to avoid a banking crisis? What happens when you hold
a referendum on electoral reform? Turn to Canada. The Canadian experience has proven a rich seam for international policy development, especially for the British who share a common language, value system and a legal and political framework.
The shared political system may prove a particularly interesting place to watch in about a year or so. Last year, Daniel Finkelstein wrote
a striking and perhaps still prophetic article detailing the consitutional difficulties Britain would face, if no majority was returned at the General Election. Before continuing you should take a moment to read that piece, which even this long excerpt cannot do justice to:
"Imagine there has just been an election, and the Conservatives are back in power as a minority government. They are easily the largest party, but they've fallen just short. They don't have a majority. It's a hung Parliament. At first the Tories are exultant — they're back! they're bigger! they're best! — but the euphoria doesn't last long. Because within two months they've got to present their financial plans. And that can only mean one thing — cuts.
"The Conservatives hit on some controversial measures. And the Opposition, well the Opposition don't like the proposals at all. They argue that the economic situation requires a fiscal stimulus rather than retrenchment. The moment that the details are announced to the Commons, it's apparent that the Tories have a big problem. They are staring defeat in the House in the face. And they haven't enough MPs to stop it."
It turns out (spoiler alert) that Daniel was giving an exact description of Canada's near past, as opposed to a prediction about Britain's near future. The Canadian Conservatives' newly signed confidence and supply agreement suffered an almost immediate collapse over their proposed budgetary cuts. What followed was a constitutional nightmare, wherein the Crown (represented in Canada by a former journalist chosen by the Prime Minister of the previous administration) suspended parliament in order to avoid a no confidence vote and the collapse of the Government. During that legislative recess, one of the principal options being considered (and debated by constitutional scholars) in the event of an eventual no confidence vote was for the Crown to invite opposition parties to form a new coalition government - without holding another election.
Returning to British politics, consider the highly plausible scenario laid out by Simon Heffer in his article The next Labour leader could be Prime Minister within a year. It's May 2011. The Spending Review has detailed the enormous cuts coming across the public sector. Trident stays, university tuition rises. Labour has chosen a new leader and begun to publicly distance itself from the Brown years. The referendum on AV has either been blocked in the Commons or the Lords, or voted down by the public (see, again, the Canadian precedent). The Liberal Democrats may find their party in a fatal internal crisis, leaving Nick Clegg particularly vulnerable and the Simon Hughes-wing of the party looking to distance themselves from the Conservatives with another election - or even another coalition partner...