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Can the Economy Recover with almost 2.5 million people out of Work?

Andrew Cave of the FSB's article for the ResPublica Fringe magazine

With the exception of the 1980s, the UK is currently experiencing the highest levels of unemployment since the 1930s Depression.

The recession has been tough for everyone and people continue to struggle. Inflation is still above the two per cent mark and is likely to rise to almost five per cent before the end of 2011. In part, those has to do with the VAT increase at the start of the year pushing prices up, but with the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development suggesting that only 25 per cent of workers will get a payrise in 2011, things are likely to stay tough.

Lower levels of disposable income amongst both consumers and businesses have created a vicious circle where people don’t spend and businesses can’t invest. Almost a year after the disappointing final quarter of 2010, when growth fell back into negative territory, the economy is lacklustre at best ,or indeed ‘in a coma’, as one commentator recently described growth.

More worryingly, economic forecasts for growth are all being revised down and many were surprised that the second quarter employment figures showed an increase in unemployment, rather than the decline we’d seen in the previous quarters.

Current unemployment stats show that more than 1.6 million people have been out of work for up to one year with women and young people making up a large proportion of the figures.   With many students finishing school who will not have a University place, this can only really get worse.

Businesses want to help strengthen the recovery – but many of them just aren’t confident enough to take on staff.  The recent Federation of Small Businesses ‘Voice of Small Business’ Index showed that the number of firms reducing staff levels declined in the second quarter, although more firms are still laying off workers than hiring new ones. 

The index also shows that a third of businesses that have applied for credit have been turned down in the 12 months to June. As a result of failing to get all the credit applied for, 40 per cent of respondents have on-going financial concerns, almost a third (31%) have missed a growth opportunity, one in five (21%) have delayed their investment plans and 18 per cent believe they are at a competitive disadvantage.

Evidence from past recessions shows that demand for finance is at its highest during the recovery as businesses look to invest and take on staff. At a time when the Government is looking to the private sector to boost the recovery and create jobs it is vital that businesses can access funds. 

In 2010, the Department for Work and Pensions spent £2.24 billion on Jobseekers Allowance. The Government must prioritise growth to ensure that businesses can pick up the slack and ensure that the people that are out of work find new jobs.

According to the Office for National Statistics, the average person earns £499 per week and will contribute £5,941 per year to the Treasury in taxes. So taking one million people off benefits and putting them into work would generate £5.9 billion for the Treasury- helping to put the recovery on a much firmer footing, as well as tackling the deficit.

The Government has many tools available to help create new jobs and put people back into work. Its New Enterprise Allowance scheme provides a grant to help people start up a business. In 1992, under the first Enterprise Allowance Scheme, more than 36,000 businesses were set up and more than 10,000 additional jobs were created.

The FSB believes that allowing people with a valid business idea the chance to use the scheme from the first day they claim Jobseekers Allowance, rather than after having claimed for six months, would get people straight back into work, creating more jobs in the future. This is especially pertinent as the number of people claiming Jobseekers has risen dramatically.

FSB research has also shown that up to 46,000 jobs could be created if the Government extended its current Work Trials scheme. Work Trials are beneficial for both the employer and the employee as they offer key skills to help businesses move forward while at the same time ensure the person on the work trial is learning new skills. Research shows that nearly half of all jobs beginning with a Work Trial have led to a permanent job in that business.

In a recent FSB survey, nearly a third (31%) of members said that reducing National Insurance Contributions (NICS) payments for the first six months of employment would encourage them to take on more staff, and 11 per cent said extending the NICs holiday scheme would be an incentive.

The Current NICs scheme is only open to new start-up businesses for the first 10 employees they take on as long as the business isn’t operating in the east or south east of England, or in London. It hasn’t really had the take up that the Government expected with figures suggesting that only 5,137 businesses have used the scheme in its first 10 months of operation.

The FSB has long been calling for the scheme to be extended to existing micro businesses across the whole of UK to help boost the recovery, as it is those businesses that have been trading for some time that are more likely to take on a member of staff.

The economy will not flourish unless the unemployment level falls – but businesses need a helping hand to take people on. Government, while cutting the deficit, must put an action plan in place for growth. We must avoid a jobless recovery at all costs because, businesses, consumers and the Government simply cannot afford it.

 

Andrew Cave spoke at “NOT a jobless recovery?” a ResPublica public fringe series co-hosted with Monster across all three party conferences.


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Date Published
06 October 2011